The Enrollment Cliff Is Coming And Military-Connected Learners May Be the Key to Higher Education’s Future

Higher education is standing at a pivotal moment. For years, colleges and universities have known that a significant demographic shift was approaching — and now, it’s no longer a distant prediction. It’s here.

This shift, known widely as the “enrollment cliff,” is forcing institutions across the U.S. to rethink how they recruit, support, and serve students. But as institutions search for new and sustainable enrollment pathways, one trend is becoming increasingly clear:

🎖️ Military-connected learners — including active-duty service members, veterans, and military families — are emerging as one of the most important growth populations in higher education.

Let’s explore why.

What Is the Enrollment Cliff?

The term enrollment cliff refers to a steep, anticipated drop in the number of traditional college-aged students, beginning around 2025–2026 and continuing throughout the decade.

Why is this happening?

It traces back to the 2008 recession, when millions of families delayed or decided against having children. Birth rates fell sharply — and those “missing” children would have become college freshmen around 2026.

As a result:

• There are fewer 18-year-olds entering the pipeline,

• Competition among colleges is growing,

• Some small institutions are closing or merging, and

• Student recruitment strategies are being reinvented.

While total U.S. enrollment is projected to grow modestly overall, the traditional-aged student population — the group many colleges most rely on — is shrinking significantly in certain regions.

This is the cliff.

Why Military-Connected Learners Matter More Than Ever

As the supply of traditional students declines, colleges are turning their attention to populations that have been historically underserved or overlooked. And military-connected learners are standing out for several reasons.

1. A Stable, Resilient Source of Enrollment

While the traditional undergraduate population is shrinking, the number of veterans and active-duty service members pursuing education remains steady year after year. GI Bill™ benefits provide reliable access to tuition funding, making enrollment less sensitive to economic downturns.

2. A Strong Fit for Career-Focused Pathways

Today’s military-connected learners are increasingly interested in:

• cybersecurity

• healthcare

• engineering

• logistics

• business and entrepreneurship

• skilled trades and applied technologies

These align perfectly with the careers U.S. employers need most — and the very programs that colleges are expanding.

3. Institutional Momentum and Support Growth

Over the past five years, colleges have been:

• Building veteran and military family resource centers

• Offering dedicated academic advising and mental-health support

• Creating military-friendly program formats (evening, hybrid, accelerated, competency-based)

• Strengthening transfer pathways

• Hiring military-connected admissions counselors

As institutions invest more deeply in this population, success outcomes improve — and enrollment follows.

4. A Population Looking for Opportunity

Every year, thousands of service members separate from the military, and many want to pursue education as part of their transition. But GI Bill™ usage is shifting:

• Fewer students are attending for-profit colleges

• More are enrolling in public and non-profit universities

• More are seeking flexible, high-quality degree or certificate programs

This shift expands the opportunity for colleges that know how to meet their needs.

How Colleges Can Position Themselves for Growth

As 2026 approaches, higher education institutions that adapt early will be the ones best positioned to thrive. Here’s how:

✓ Invest in dedicated military-connected services

✓ Build flexible pathways

✓ Train staff in military cultural competency

✓ Strengthen employer-aligned programs

✓ Partner with bases, installations, and community organizations

A New Era of Enrollment Strategy

The enrollment cliff doesn’t have to be a crisis. It can be a catalyst.

While some institutions may struggle under the weight of demographic decline, others will find opportunity by embracing non-traditional learners, expanding access, and aligning education with the realities of today’s workforce.

And among all non-traditional student groups, one stands out:

🎖️ Military-connected learners bring commitment, real-world experience, career focus, and the potential for long-term enrollment stability.

As colleges and universities rethink the future, military-connected students aren’t just a helpful addition to the enrollment mix — they may very well be the foundation for the next decade of higher-education growth.

Strengthening Veteran & Military-Connected Support with VA-Works

To fully capitalize on this opportunity, institutions need tools that reduce administrative burden and allow staff to focus on high-impact student engagement. VA-Works, our GI Bill™ enrollment certification platform, strengthens the efficiency and effectiveness of Veteran & Military-Connected Student Offices by streamlining workflows, reducing processing time, and improving accuracy across certification-related tasks. With clearer data, automated reminders, and simplified reporting, teams can spend less time on manual administration and more time providing the personalized support that truly drives retention and completion for military-connected learners.

To learn how VA-Works can elevate your institution’s military-connected strategy, contact us at sales@va-works.com , more information visit www.va-works.com or book a personalized demo: 👉 🔗 https://lnkd.in/g8ksyECK

References citation

AGB (Association of Governing Boards of Universities and Colleges). (2025). Impacts of the enrollment cliff in 2025–2026. https://agb.org/blog-post/impacts-of-the-enrollment-cliff-in-2025-2026/

BestColleges. (2024). Changing demographics will impact higher education for years. https://www.bestcolleges.com/news/changing-demographics-will-impact-higher-education-for-years/

Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce. (2024). Preparing colleges for the demographic cliff (as referenced via Georgetown’s “The Feed”). https://feed.georgetown.edu/access-affordability/preparing-colleges-for-the-demographic-cliff/

Hechinger Report. (2024). America is about to face the enrollment cliff — and the economy could suffer. https://hechingerreport.org/the-impact-of-this-is-economic-decline/

Inside Higher Ed. (2024, December 11). College-age demographics begin steady projected decline. https://www.insidehighered.com/news/admissions/traditional-age/2024/12/11/college-age-demographics-…